The Changing Face of Mongolia as Beneath the Grass, Permafrost Thaws
A Climate Shift Unfolding Beneath the Surface
The changing face of Mongolia as beneath – Mongolia’s rapid warming, driven by the escalating climate crisis, is reshaping its cryosphere, including some of the most southerly permafrost landscapes in the northern hemisphere. While often overlooked in global climate discussions, the country’s cold climate extends beyond its reputation as a desert. Ulaanbaatar, the capital, holds the distinction of being the world’s coldest capital city, with vast regions falling within the Arctic Ocean drainage basin. This unique geographical positioning means that many physical and ecological processes here mirror those in higher latitudes. For instance, residents of Khövsgöl province have noted a growing presence of migratory birds from China in recent years, which has led to a noticeable surge in fish consumption within the region’s lakes.
Thawing Impacts on Ecosystems and Livelihoods
In northern Mongolia, communities reliant on fishing, herding, and tourism are witnessing profound changes in their fragile freshwater ecosystems. These transformations, linked to climate breakdown and the shifting cryosphere, are no longer subtle. Thermokarst depressions—sunken areas formed as permafrost thaws—now mar the grasslands, creating unpredictable landscapes for traditional grazing. The thawing process also disrupts the stability of the ground, affecting not only natural systems but human infrastructure. A recent example in Bayanzurkh sum, Khövsgöl province, saw a mural peel from the cracked walls of a school boarding facility. As permafrost destabilizes the foundation, fissures spread through the dormitory where children from nomadic herding families reside during the school year.
“Mongolian permafrost occurs across a wide range of landscapes and environmental conditions, making the country an essential natural laboratory for studying permafrost dynamics,” says Purevdulam Yondonrentsen, a master’s student in ecology at the National University of Mongolia.
Historical surveys from the 1970s indicated that nearly 63% of Mongolia was covered by permafrost. Today, estimates suggest that this figure has dropped to between 26% and 29%. Unlike the ice-rich permafrost of Siberia, Canada, or Alaska, much of Mongolia’s frozen ground is relatively warm, thin, and dry. This characteristic makes it more susceptible to temperature fluctuations, accelerating thawing processes. According to Nikolay Shiklomanov, a professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at George Washington University, local pressures such as overgrazing further contribute to this decline. The removal of vegetation that insulates the ground exacerbates the thaw, creating a feedback loop that intensifies environmental changes.
Environmental Changes in Everyday Life
As permafrost thaws, its effects manifest in tangible ways across the country. Pastures that once provided stable grazing grounds are now experiencing shifts in moisture levels. Some areas become wetter and marshier, while others dry out as water percolates deeper into the soil. This unpredictability disrupts the delicate balance herders rely on, affecting both livestock and the quality of milk used for traditional foods like airag and cheese. Springs that once marked reliable water sources are migrating, altering seasonal availability and forcing communities to adapt.
The thawing process also alters the landscape’s hydrology. Frozen ground, which once acted as a natural reservoir, now allows water to seep into the subsurface. This change has led to the expansion of thermokarst ponds in regions like the Darkhad Depression, one of Mongolia’s largest permafrost areas. As underground ice melts, the ground subsides, creating new water bodies that disrupt the rhythm of local ecosystems. Traditional grazing areas are increasingly fragmented, forcing herders to navigate a patchwork of wetlands and dry expanses. Yaks, which thrive in cool, moist conditions, are particularly vulnerable to these changes, as their survival depends on the stability of the environment.
“Understanding permafrost change requires more than scientific measurements alone. Local and Indigenous communities have lived with frozen landscapes for generations, building knowledge through observation and experience,” explains Nikolay Shiklomanov.
These observations are not limited to scientific studies. Herders, for example, have reported firsthand the impact of shifting conditions on their livelihoods. The once-predictable patterns of water and grass are now disrupted, creating challenges in managing livestock and ensuring food security. In the Arsai pingo region, a woman prepares tea in her wooden home while nearby thermokarst features reshape the terrain. The connection between permafrost and the broader circumpolar north is undeniable. Changes unfolding in Mongolia ripple beyond its borders, influencing ecosystems and climate systems across the Arctic.
Preserving Knowledge and Building Resilience
While scientific data provides critical insights, the wisdom of local communities offers a complementary perspective. Indigenous and traditional knowledge, accumulated over centuries, has long recognized the subtle signals of environmental change. Observations of shifting snow patterns, altered ice formations, and disrupted seasonal cycles have been noted long before they appear in scientific records. By integrating these insights with modern research, a more comprehensive understanding of permafrost dynamics can be achieved.
Efforts to document and preserve this knowledge are gaining momentum. Projects in regions like Khövsgöl province aim to bridge the gap between scientific analysis and lived experience. For instance, herders in northern areas have shared their observations about the timing of seasonal migrations and the impact of thawing on pastureland. These accounts, when combined with satellite imagery and ground-level measurements, provide a clearer picture of the challenges ahead. The melting permafrost is not just a distant threat—it is an ongoing reality that reshapes the land and the lives of those who depend on it.
As the climate continues to warm, Mongolia stands at a crossroads. The thawing of its permafrost offers a glimpse into the future of the Arctic, where similar transformations may soon occur. The country’s unique position as a southern permafrost region makes it a valuable case study for understanding the broader implications of global warming. With rising temperatures, the foundation of Mongolian ecosystems, from wetlands to grasslands, is increasingly at risk. The interplay between human activity and natural systems underscores the need for adaptive strategies that address both local and global challenges.
The story of Mongolia’s permafrost is one of gradual transformation, driven by forces both natural and anthropogenic. While the thawing process may seem slow to the untrained eye, its consequences are far-reaching. From the disappearance of traditional grazing grounds to the instability of infrastructure, the effects of permafrost loss are reshaping the nation’s identity. As the world watches the Arctic for signs of climate change, Mongolia’s experience serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of environmental systems. The land beneath the grass is not just disappearing—it is rewriting the future of the region, one crack at a time.
