As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

As Former NATO Leader Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the UK Military Shrunk?

Lord Robertson, the ex-NATO secretary general and former Labour defence secretary, has raised concerns that the UK’s current defence strategy places its security “in peril.” He argues that the nation’s welfare budget is expanding while defence funding remains insufficient. BBC Verify has examined the current scale of the UK’s military forces, revealing a marked reduction since 1990.

At the end of the Cold War in 1990, the British Army boasted 153,000 regular soldiers. Today, that number has fallen to 73,790. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) aims to prevent the regular force from dropping below 73,000. However, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported a 40% decline in regular army enlistment applications in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Reservist numbers have also dwindled significantly, from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 currently. The Royal Navy, once equipped with 48 major combat ships—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—now operates 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. A recent incident highlighted the navy’s readiness challenges: it took weeks to deploy HMS Dragon to the Gulf to support a Royal Air Force base in Cyprus.

The Royal Air Force (RAF) has similarly reduced its combat jet fleet, from over 300 in 1990 to 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft. While these newer models are technologically advanced, they represent a smaller force. Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a critical part of the UK’s air capabilities—a concept absent in 1990. In Ukraine, drones have been noted for their ability to surpass traditional artillery in casualties.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” Lord Robertson warned.

The government has responded to Robertson’s criticisms by stating it plans “the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War.” However, analysts suggest this is a modest goal, as defence budgets have generally declined since the Berlin Wall fell. The MoD aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defence spending by April 2027, with an “ambition” to reach 3% in the next Parliament.

Comparisons between defence and welfare spending have intensified. In the mid-1980s, defence funding exceeded welfare costs, but now welfare spending surpasses it. This trend is expected to rise to 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven partly by increasing claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP). Although rising mental health issues are linked to higher PIP applications, the exact reasons for the trend remain unclear.

The UK’s defence spending stands at 2.3% of GDP in 2025, placing it just above the midpoint of NATO member contributions. The alliance’s 2035 target of 5% GDP for national security includes 3.5% for core defence and an additional 1.5% for infrastructure protection and civil preparedness. Only Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia exceeded the 3.5% core defence benchmark in 2025, with Estonia and Norway nearing it.

The MoD oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in 2024-25. The National Audit Office (NAO) recently assessed their performance, rating 12 projects as ‘Red’—indicating that success seems unlikely. The report emphasized recurring issues with project delivery, often missing deadlines, budgets, or quality standards. For projects valued over £20 million, the average contract award time stretched to six and a half years, according to the NAO.

Analysts attribute the current defence challenges to evolving threats, including Russia’s military actions since 2022, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and uncertainties about the US’s continued commitment to NATO. Despite these pressures, the MoD’s procurement process remains under scrutiny, with calls for a more agile “segmented approach” to meet the 2025 SDR’s two-year delivery targets.