NDIS Overhaul to Remove Nearly 145,000 Autistic Australians From Scheme
Almost 145 000 Australians will lose – Internal government projections indicate that approximately 144,600 Australians currently receiving autism-related assistance through the National Disability Insurance Scheme will be removed before the decade concludes. This significant reduction forms part of the federal government’s strategy to refocus the $52 billion program on individuals with substantial and intricate requirements.
According to health department materials obtained by Guardian Australia via freedom of information requests, the restructuring will take effect from 2028. Under these new arrangements, nearly two-thirds of the 241,000 participants projected to lose NDIS access will be teenagers or younger. The modifications represent the Albanese administration’s attempt to stabilize the scheme’s finances and are anticipated to receive parliamentary approval when legislators reconvene next month, notwithstanding strong opposition from disability advocates and political figures.
Financial Pressures Driving Reform
Without governmental intervention, officials project that the annual cost of the NDIS will exceed $117 billion within ten years—more than doubling from its current level. People with autism represent the most rapidly expanding segment of the scheme, accounting for 42 percent of all participants. During the quarter concluding in December 2025, 68 percent of newly admitted autistic individuals were younger than 14 years old.
The health department anticipates that 241,000 participants will eventually transition off the NDIS by June 2031 following implementation of the functional capacity assessment. This adjustment aims to maintain total participant numbers around 600,000. Concurrently, an additional 105,000 individuals will be prevented from entering the scheme entirely. These eligibility modifications, alongside other proposals, are projected to decrease the scheme’s expansion rate to slightly under 2 percent over the coming four years—a substantial decline from the 23 percent peak recorded during 2021-22.
Disproportionate Impact on Young People
An internal executive brief within the health department reveals that of the 241,000 individuals who will become ineligible for NDIS support under the proposed changes, 60 percent—totaling 144,600 people—will have autism or developmental delays identified as their primary disability. Furthermore, 64 percent, or 154,240 individuals, will be aged 18 or younger at the time of removal.
“Some of the people no longer eligible for the NDIS may be well supported by community and mainstream services, and others through new foundational supports,” a government spokesperson stated when questioned about programs for teenage Australians with autism.
When specifically asked whether any initiatives were planned for autistic teenagers, the spokesperson provided an indirect response rather than addressing the inquiry directly.
Ministerial Defense and Alternative Supports
NDIS Minister Mark Butler has consistently emphasized that the scheme was designed exclusively for individuals with “significant and permanent disability.” Speaking to ABC radio earlier this month, Butler explained the urgency of the reforms.
“The scheme is really struggling. It’s growing far too fast. It’s frankly too big, not just for the budget. I mean, it’s costing an extraordinary amount of money for taxpayers, but it’s also dislocating a whole lot of other services and systems elsewhere in the care economy.”
The Thriving Kids initiative, co-funded by federal and state authorities, will commence operations in October. This program will provide assistance to children under nine years of age who experience mild developmental delays or autism and are subsequently removed from the NDIS. This represents the inaugural phase of additional state-managed disability support services—frequently referred to as foundational supports—designed to redirect individuals away from the NDIS.
Human Rights and Assessment Concerns
A parliamentary human rights committee report published in June examined the government’s proposed modifications to reduce the disability funding lifeline for numerous Australians. The committee cautioned that these changes could prove retrogressive and restrict human rights for certain populations.
The department’s briefing document acknowledges that the reforms may not benefit everyone equally but maintains they are essential for the NDIS’s long-term sustainability.
“To the extent that some measures might limit certain rights, they are reasonable, necessary, and proportionate to ensure health-related supports can continue to be delivered to those with the most significant and complex needs, rather than being diluted across a broader class of people which the scheme was not designed to support,” the document stated.
Autism Aspergers Advocacy Australia, a grassroots advocacy organization, submitted concerns to a parliamentary inquiry regarding the legislation. The group warned that implementing a functional capacity test for autistic individuals would present “especially problematic” challenges.
“Autism has very broad variation across a complex ‘spectrum’ of impairments,” the submission explained. “No one has created a tool for functional assessment of autistic subjects though many have tried. There is no reason at all to expect that the NDIS will succeed.”
