Nearly a Quarter of Voters in Europe Now Back Far-Right Parties
Nearly a quarter of voters in Europe – A new study reveals that almost one in four European voters has shifted their support to far-right political parties, marking a dramatic increase over the past three decades. The research, conducted by more than 150 political scientists across 31 countries, highlights that the proportion of voters backing such parties has grown from approximately 5% in 1995 to over 23% in the most recent national elections. This surge, which has accelerated significantly in the last few years, reflects a deepening polarization in European politics and a growing appetite for anti-establishment movements.
A Decades-Long Trend with Recent Momentum
The research, spearheaded by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, for the PopuList survey, underscores that the shift is not abrupt but has been building steadily. “What we’ve seen over the years is a gradual transformation in how voters perceive far-right themes,” Rooduijn explained. “While their views on immigration have remained consistent, the influence of these issues in shaping electoral decisions has intensified.” The study also notes that the percentage of Europeans voting for anti-establishment parties has reached 30%, another record high.
“When we launched the PopuList project in 2018, the central insight was that one in four Europeans supported populist parties, often blending far-left and far-right ideologies. Today, the trend has reversed—nearly a quarter of voters are rallying behind far-right movements, which are now dominant in the populist sphere.”
The growth in far-right support has been most pronounced between 2023 and 2025, with significant gains observed in major European nations. In France, the National Rally (RN) saw its vote share jump from 19% to 37%, securing the position of the largest single party in the National Assembly. Similarly, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) increased its support from 16% to 29%, while Portugal’s Chega rose from 7% to 18%. In the UK, Reform UK, which previously rejected the far-right label, expanded its voter base from 2% in 2019 to 14% by 2024.
Far-Right Parties in Power and Polling Strong
Far-right populist parties are now part of governing coalitions in Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, with Sweden’s right-wing minority government also relying on their support. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved a historic milestone by becoming the second-largest party in the 2025 elections, with its share of the vote doubling from 10% to 21%. These developments signal a broader realignment in European political landscapes, where far-right ideologies are increasingly mainstream.
Despite these gains, some far-right parties have faced setbacks. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) lost nearly a third of its parliamentary seats, finishing in second place in the 2024 elections. Hungary’s Fidesz, led by Viktor Orbán, suffered a major defeat when his center-right rival emerged victorious in April of the same year. However, these losses have not dented the overall upward trajectory of far-right support across the continent.
Factors Behind the Rise
Experts involved in the PopuList project identify three key drivers behind this political shift. First, voter attitudes toward core far-right themes—such as immigration—have become more influential in electoral choices. While these views have not fundamentally changed, their prominence in shaping political preferences has grown substantially over time.
Second, the normalization of far-right parties has played a critical role. As these groups gain visibility and influence, they have become more accepted, even by mainstream politicians. “The more successful they become, the more they are perceived as part of the political mainstream,” Rooduijn noted. “This is reinforced by media coverage and the adoption of their ideas by centrist parties, creating a self-perpetuating cycle.”
Third, far-right parties have excelled in crafting compelling narratives that resonate emotionally with voters. “They are masters of storytelling,” Rooduijn remarked. “Their messages often frame society as a battleground between a loyal ‘us’ and an outsider ‘them’—whether that’s immigrants, judges, or ‘woke elites.’” This ‘heroes versus villains’ narrative, rooted in nostalgia for an idealized past, has helped these parties cultivate a strong emotional connection with their base.
Defining Far-Right Populism
The PopuList survey, initiated eight years ago in collaboration with The Guardian, defines far-right parties based on two central ideologies: nativism and authoritarianism. Nativism emphasizes the belief that a nation should be dominated by its indigenous population, often portraying immigrants and outsiders as threats to cultural identity and economic stability. Authoritarianism, on the other hand, aligns with a focus on centralized control, strong leadership, and the suppression of dissent.
Rooduijn highlighted that these parties have not only maintained their ideological foundations but have also refined their messaging to appeal to a wider audience. “They’ve professionalized their approach, using data-driven strategies to amplify their narratives,” he said. “This has allowed them to adapt quickly to changing political environments and maintain relevance across different regions.”
A Growing Political Divide
The findings suggest a significant political divide in Europe, with far-right parties capturing a substantial portion of the electorate. This shift has been particularly notable in countries where traditional parties have struggled to address public concerns about immigration, economic inequality, and cultural change. The research also points to a broader trend of distrust in established political institutions, which has been exploited by far-right movements to consolidate their support.
Rooduijn stressed that the rise of far-right parties is a result of long-term societal shifts, not a sudden phenomenon. “The seeds of this movement were sown decades ago, but recent events have accelerated its growth,” he said. “From Brexit to the refugee crisis, these issues have become catalysts for political realignment.” The study further notes that the increasing normalization of far-right ideologies has made them more palatable to voters who may have previously viewed them as extreme.
As the trend continues, the political landscape in Europe is evolving rapidly. With far-right parties gaining traction in key nations, their influence on policy and governance is set to expand. This development challenges traditional party systems and may reshape the future of European democracy, as voters increasingly prioritize nationalist and populist agendas over centrist compromise.
The PopuList’s comprehensive analysis has provided valuable insights into the changing dynamics of European politics. By tracking the trajectory of far-right parties over 36 years, the study offers a nuanced understanding of how these movements have gained momentum. The data underscores that the far-right is no longer a fringe force but a major player in shaping the continent’s political future.
