Super El Niño Could Cause Food Price Shock Through 2028
Super El Niño could cause global – Economic experts are warning that a developing “super” El Niño could cause a severe disruption to global food markets that lasts well into 2028. This powerful weather cycle arrives as international food costs already sit at their highest level in three years, driven by ongoing tensions in Iran. Analysts describe the situation as supply chains facing “two shocks at once,” with extreme climate patterns intensifying existing pressures through global heating.
Unprecedented Weather Patterns Emerging
Scientists have identified the 2026-27 El Niño as having historically strong potential to become a “very strong” event. This phenomenon develops when wind shifts allow warmer ocean waters to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The informal “super” or “Godzilla” designation reflects its exceptional nature. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed last month that warming conditions are firmly establishing in Pacific waters, with a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above normal later this year.
For households already struggling with rising living expenses, experts warn that an extreme El Niño could intensify financial pressure considerably. The prospect of renewed inflationary shock is also unsettling central banking institutions, heightening concerns that interest rates may remain elevated for extended periods.
“El Niño puts ‘climateflation’ back on the agenda,” analysts at the Italian bank UniCredit wrote in a research note. “Europe’s recent heatwaves are a reminder that the climate baseline is already shifting. El Niño could add a new layer of pressure later this year, as it amplifies the effects of global warming.”
Historical Precedents and Modern Projections
This naturally occurring phenomenon carries a long history of disrupting harvests and food distribution networks. More than a century ago, an El Niño event—likely the most severe on record—prompted catastrophic droughts spanning China, southern Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and India. These conditions, worsened by colonial governance structures, created famine scenarios that claimed millions of lives, including over 6 million people in India during 1876-78. More recent El Niño events in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16, and 2023-24 rank among the strongest ever documented.
However, NOAA projections suggest the 2026-27 cycle may surpass even these formidable predecessors, elevating risks of both droughts and flooding impacting global harvests and food supply chains. Goldman Sachs analysts project this El Niño’s strength could generate a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices. Such increases would ripple worldwide, with European consumers potentially facing 1.3% food price rises across the eurozone. The complete impact will unfold gradually, as climate-related costs percolate through global food systems. Goldman Sachs estimates consequences may take until the second half of 2028 to be “fully realised.”
Regional Winners and Losers
Most of this delayed impact stems from how extreme weather intersects with diverse agricultural cycles. Different crops follow varying planting, growing, and harvesting timelines, while logistical challenges—including water levels in canals and rivers essential for key shipments—add further complexity.
“El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers,” analysts at UBS said.
Some regions may actually benefit from warmer conditions. Meanwhile, El Niño would compound disruptions already caused by the Iran war by adding food supply chain difficulties to existing higher prices and shortages of fertiliser and energy supplies.
“Even modest supply disruptions could trigger large price moves than historical patterns could imply,” the UBS analysts said.
Typically, El Niños elevate drought risks in southern Africa and northern South America while bringing flooding to southern Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Lower-income nations—already bearing the brunt of the Iran conflict—stand to suffer most severely.
“El Niño has already begun to affect crops, driving a drier monsoon season in India, with some regions only experiencing 25% of their usual rainfall, and parts of central India only receiving 50%, which could affect supply for wheat, rice, and sugar cane,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
