Shadow war: how use of proxy forces by Iran, Israel and US is driving Middle East instability

Shadow War in the Middle East: Proxy Forces and Regional Instability

Shadow war - The ongoing shadow war in the Middle East has intensified as Iran, Israel, and the US continue to leverage proxy forces to shape the region’s geopolitical landscape. With the recent Iran-US agreement, leaders in the Gulf remain wary, concerned that Tehran’s expansionist goals are not adequately constrained. “The tension persists,” said a senior US official, emphasizing that the deal’s effectiveness depends on Iran’s willingness to reduce its backing of militant groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Analysts suggest that the shadow war has not only deepened rivalries but also entrenched the use of proxies as a dominant strategy, with no clear signs of de-escalation in the foreseeable future.

Hezbollah: A Pillar of Iran’s Shadow War Strategy

Despite enduring heavy losses in 2024 and 2025, Hezbollah has remained a vital pillar in Iran’s shadow war. The group’s survival after Israeli strikes has reinforced its role as a key enforcer of Tehran’s ambitions. “Hezbollah’s resilience is a testament to the shadow war’s persistence,” stated Hanin Ghaddar, a Washington Institute fellow. While Iran views the group as a temporary setback, its continued operations underscore how the shadow war has solidified alliances between regional powers and militant factions. This dynamic has also complicated diplomatic relations, as Israel now faces pressure from Washington to temper its attacks on Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s actions in the shadow war reveal a complex interplay of strategy and symbolism. By tying the ceasefire between the US and Iran to Lebanon’s internal conflict, Tehran has amplified regional tensions. The group’s ability to act as a proxy without full Iranian intervention highlights the fluid nature of the shadow war, where local actors and global powers collaborate and compete simultaneously. This interdependence has made it difficult to predict the conflict’s trajectory, with each side adjusting tactics to maintain influence.

Houthis: Independent Actors in the Shadow War

The Houthis in Yemen, though closely aligned with Iran, have demonstrated an independent streak within the shadow war. Their late entry into the conflict saw them successfully targeting Israeli assets, asserting a presence in the Red Sea trade routes. “The Houthis have shown they can operate autonomously,” remarked Ghaddar, noting that their strategic decisions sometimes diverge from Tehran’s direct control. This autonomy, however, has also led to friction, as the group’s actions challenge Iran’s ability to fully dictate the shadow war’s course.

While the Houthis are part of Iran’s shadow war apparatus, their performance has revealed both strengths and vulnerabilities. Their limited scale of attacks, compared to Hezbollah, has highlighted the challenges of sustaining a proxy force in remote regions. Nevertheless, their resilience has forced Iran to recalibrate its approach, balancing support with the risk of losing leverage. The Houthis’ role in the shadow war thus reflects a broader pattern of regional actors navigating between global powers and local interests.

Shia Militias in Iraq: Shadow War Tactics and Domestic Constraints

Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq have exhibited strategic flexibility in the shadow war, launching coordinated strikes against US assets without triggering full-scale conflict. Groups like the Badr Organization have targeted installations in Kuwait and other locations, signaling Iran’s intent to weaken US influence. However, their cautious approach suggests the shadow war is not only about escalation but also about managing risks. “Iraqi leaders have forced the militias to adopt a more measured stance,” explained Michael Knights, an expert at Horizon Engage. This shift reflects how domestic politics can shape the shadow war’s intensity and direction.

The shadow war in Iraq highlights the interplay between regional ambitions and local realities. While Iran seeks to counter Kurdish factions through these militias, the latter’s reluctance to fully engage has created uncertainty. “The Kurds had their own agenda,” said former military officials, indicating that their neutrality in the shadow war has provided a strategic buffer. This duality—where proxy forces operate with both Tehran’s backing and independent agency—has become a defining feature of the conflict’s evolving nature.

US-Israeli Efforts: Struggles in Mobilizing Minority Groups

At the start of the shadow war in January 2026, US and Israeli forces attempted to rally armed groups among Iran’s ethnic minorities, including Arab and Baloch factions. These efforts aimed to create a counterbalance to Tehran’s influence, yet they lacked momentum. “Initial contacts were promising, but cooperation never materialized,” recalled Michael Milshtein, a Tel Aviv University analyst. This failure to mobilize minority groups has left the US and Israel relying on established allies, further entrenching the shadow war’s reliance on proxy networks.

The shadow war’s reliance on proxies has also exposed the challenges of aligning disparate groups under common cause. While Kurdish factions in northern Iraq have historical ties to both the US and Israel, their neutrality in the conflict has complicated efforts to use them as a strategic asset. “The shadow war demands not just military support, but political coordination,” said Milshtein. This complexity has made it difficult to achieve a decisive outcome, with each side adapting to the shifting alliances and challenges of the proxy-driven conflict.