Middle East crisis live: Rubio sees initial progress on reopening Hormuz after Trump claims Iran deal ‘largely negotiated’
Middle East crisis live: Rubio sees initial progress on reopening Hormuz after Trump claims Iran deal ‘largely negotiated’
Middle East crisis live - During a recent diplomatic trip to India, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed reporters in New Delhi, expressing cautious optimism about potential advancements in negotiations with Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz. While acknowledging “notable strides” in peace talks, he emphasized that the current developments were not definitive, underscoring the need for continued engagement. The progress, Rubio claimed, could lead to “positive outcomes” within hours, though the full scope of the agreement remains uncertain.
US-Iran Talks and the Hormuz Strait
Rubio highlighted the critical role of the Gulf region’s allies in shaping the agreement, stating that an outline had been reached to address the “core issues” surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He reiterated the US’s longstanding stance, asserting that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and that the strait of Hormuz should remain a free passage for global shipping. “If this succeeds,” he said, “we could see a fully open strait, with no tolls imposed by Tehran on vessels passing through.”
"I do think perhaps there is the possibility that in the next few hours the world will get some good news," Rubio told the media. "Significant progress has been made, but it's not yet final."
Rubio’s comments followed reports that the draft deal had moved closer to finalization. However, Iranian state media, including Tasnim, countered that Tehran had not committed to transferring any nuclear material. They argued that the agreement primarily focused on ending the war, with nuclear matters deferred to later stages. This discrepancy has fueled speculation about the agreement’s true intentions.
Trump’s Claim of “Largely Negotiated” Deal
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, stated that the Iran deal was “largely negotiated,” signaling a shift in the administration’s approach. He claimed that the Memorandum of Understanding to end hostilities with Iran was nearing completion, though details remain sparse. “This could be the breakthrough we’ve been waiting for,” Trump remarked, though analysts caution that final approval is still pending.
The lack of transparency has raised questions about the deal’s specifics. While some aspects, such as a 60-day ceasefire extension, are reportedly included, others—like the exact terms of Iran’s nuclear concessions—remain unclear. A US official noted to Axios that the agreement would involve Iran reopening the strait, allowing unrestricted oil exports, and initiating discussions on curbing its nuclear program. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, which has been in place since April 13.
European Support and Regional Concerns
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed cautious support for the progress. “I welcome the steps toward a deal,” she wrote on X, stressing the need for a pact that de-escalates tensions, reopens Hormuz, and ensures toll-free navigation. She also highlighted Iran’s responsibility to halt destabilizing actions, including attacks on neighboring countries and support for militant groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Rubio’s remarks aligned with von der Leyen’s concerns, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The US secretary of state reiterated that Iran must abandon its path to nuclear weapons, a key demand for any lasting peace. However, the draft agreement’s focus on short-term ceasefire measures has left critics questioning its long-term effectiveness.
Iranian Perspective and Khamenei’s Status
A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the supreme national security council would review the proposed memorandum. If approved, the document would be forwarded to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for final endorsement. Notably, no verified footage or public appearances of Khamenei have been shared since his appointment in early March, sparking rumors about his health.
Reports suggest Khamenei sustained serious injuries in a US-Israeli strike that killed his 86-year-old father and former leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on February 28. This event has reportedly influenced Iran’s negotiating position, with the supreme leader prioritizing regional control over nuclear concessions. The current draft, according to Iranian sources, ensures the strait remains under Tehran’s authority, even as tolls are waived.
Terms of the Potential Agreement
The proposed deal is expected to include several key provisions. First, a 60-day ceasefire extension would be agreed upon, during which Iran would clear mines from the strait and allow ships to pass without fees. In return, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that could ease economic pressures on the country. Additionally, Iran’s oil exports would resume freely, potentially boosting its economy and easing regional tensions.
Rubio’s vision for the agreement extends beyond immediate ceasefire measures. He outlined the possibility of a “completely open” strait of Hormuz, free from Iranian restrictions, if the terms are successfully implemented. However, the deal’s scope is still being refined, with some details yet to be confirmed.
What’s Likely to Be Missed
Despite the progress, several critical issues are expected to be excluded from the initial agreement. Iranian officials have stated that the deal does not address the country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, a major point of contention. “Nuclear matters are not part of the preliminary talks,” a source told Reuters, adding that Iran’s willingness to relinquish HEU remains unverified.
Furthermore, the agreement does not include provisions for limiting Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for regional allies. While the ceasefire would halt hostilities with Israel and Lebanon, it does not explicitly target Iran’s military infrastructure or its role in proxy conflicts. This omission has drawn criticism from allies concerned about Iran’s long-term strategic goals.
As the negotiations continue, the focus remains on balancing immediate relief with enduring solutions. The success of the deal will depend on Iran’s commitment to de-escalate tensions and the US’s ability to secure guarantees on nuclear proliferation. With the Strait of Hormuz at the center of the crisis, the outcome of these talks could have far-reaching implications for global trade and regional stability.
Broader Implications
The potential agreement marks a pivotal moment in the Middle East crisis, but its impact will be shaped by the terms yet to be finalized. If the deal holds, it could provide temporary relief to the strait’s vital shipping lanes, which are crucial for global oil supplies. However, concerns linger over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its continued influence in the region. As the Gulf states weigh their options, the international community watches closely for signs of a sustainable resolution.
Meanwhile, the UK’s prime minister, Keir Star, has been monitoring the developments, highlighting the interconnected nature of the crisis. With the US and Iran at the forefront of negotiations, the success of this agreement could set the stage for broader diplomatic efforts in the region. The next few hours will be crucial in determining whether the deal moves from tentative progress to a formal agreement.