Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral

Iran Seeks to Reinforce Control Over Strait of Hormuz Amid Khamenei's Passing

Iran seeks to tighten control over - The recent passing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has coincided with a heightened geopolitical struggle over the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. As mourners gathered in Tehran to honor Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly intensified its efforts to consolidate dominance over the strait, a route critical for global oil shipments. Analysts suggest that the leader’s legacy may hinge on Tehran’s ability to maintain control, with implications for international energy markets and economic stability.

Shift in Shipping Patterns Amid Iranian Assertiveness

Over the past two days, the IRGC has appeared to close a widening gap in its command of the strait. Previously, a significant number of vessels had been delayed for weeks, but last week, many opted for a US-supported alternative route near Oman’s coast to bypass Iranian restrictions. This shift has left the northern corridor, which remains under Iranian scrutiny, as the primary passage for maritime traffic. However, the movement of ships has slowed further, with at least eight vessels reversing course after receiving direct warnings from IRGC forces.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) noted an incident in the Red Sea where a ship issued a distress signal following an attack by “unknown armed assailants” near Hodeidah, a Yemeni port. While investigations are ongoing, the event underscores the growing volatility in the region. Meanwhile, data from Marine Traffic reveals a 10% daily drop in crossings through the strait on July 2, marking the lowest figure in recent weeks. Iranian-flagged vessels accounted for 11 confirmed movements, up from two the previous day, while nine crossings were identified as violating sanctions.

Global Economic Impact and Strategic Maneuvering

The decline in traffic has led to a notable drop in oil prices, plummeting by 40% from a peak of $125 per barrel to around $75. This shift has eased inflationary pressures on Western economies and reflects increased oil supply in global markets. The memorandum of understanding signed digitally on June 17 between the US and Iran mandates that Tehran restore shipping levels to pre-blockade conditions. Additionally, the agreement stipulates that Iran will refrain from imposing tolls for the next 60 days, a concession aimed at stabilizing trade flows.

Despite these commitments, the document is viewed more as a flexible guideline than a binding contract. Both parties continue to leverage the ceasefire for military advantage, contradicting the US’s promise to reduce forces near the strait. Instead, the US has reportedly been augmenting its military presence in Jordan, signaling a strategic realignment. An Iranian army spokesperson confirmed that the ceasefire has been used to bolster combat readiness, stating, “We have repeatedly announced that we are using the ceasefire opportunity to enhance our combat capabilities and have not wasted a single moment nor been negligent.”

Oman’s Proposal and the Risk of Precedent

Meanwhile, Oman has proposed a framework for the future governance of the strait, drawing parallels to the Malacca Strait’s toll system. The plan, which includes optional fees for services like safety and environmental protection, has garnered backing from the International Maritime Organisation and some European nations. These states argue that the scheme is reasonable, given its similarity to the established Malacca model. However, the recent Indonesian suggestion to introduce tolls in Malacca sparked backlash, highlighting the potential for Iran to set a new precedent in Hormuz.

The debate over tolls has taken on renewed urgency as Iran’s actions at the strait raise questions about its intentions. While natural straits like Hormuz are traditionally exempt from such fees under international law, the possibility of Iran imposing charges has stirred concerns. The law allows tolls on man-made canals such as Panama and Suez, but the status of Hormuz remains contentious. If Iran proceeds with tolls, it could reshape the dynamics of maritime trade and create a new axis of economic leverage in the region.

International Reactions and the Role of Global Powers

France’s President Emmanuel Macron escalated tensions on Thursday by approving a plan with the UK to deploy a mine-clearing naval unit to the southern route. This move was met with sharp criticism from Iran’s foreign ministry, which called it “unwarranted interference.” The decision has intensified pressure on Tehran, which is now under scrutiny for its grip on the strait’s northern passage. The Iranian strategy of combining mourning with military assertiveness has been seen as a calculated effort to assert control amid global uncertainty.

As the 60-day ceasefire deadline approaches, the US has signaled a willingness to delay renewed talks until Khamenei’s funeral concludes. However, the window for compromise is narrowing, with both sides using the interim period to fortify their positions. The UKMTO’s observations and Marine Traffic’s data indicate that the strait’s significance remains undiminished, even as Iran’s influence appears to be shifting. The international community watches closely, aware that any further disruption could have far-reaching consequences for global energy security.

Symbolic Gestures at the Funeral

At Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran, Iran conveyed subtle yet profound messages to visiting Gulf delegations. As dignitaries arrived to pay respects, verses from the Qur’an were recited, emphasizing historical narratives of Islamic triumph. When the Saudi delegation stepped forward, a passage was chosen that recounted the Battle of Badr in 624, a pivotal moment in early Islamic history. The selection highlighted the alignment between Iran and Saudi Arabia in their shared commitment to religious and national sovereignty, even as tensions over the strait persist.

The ritualistic use of Quranic passages underscored the symbolic weight of Khamenei’s leadership and its connection to Iran’s maritime ambitions. By framing the strait’s control as a divine mission, the funeral reinforced the idea that the region’s security is intertwined with religious and ideological narratives. This approach has been praised for its ability to unify domestic and international audiences under a common vision of sovereignty and resilience.

Broader Implications for the Region and Beyond

The contest for Hormuz reflects a broader struggle between Iran and its regional rivals for influence. As the UKMTO and other monitors track the flow of vessels, the data reveals a pattern of Iranian dominance in the northern route, which remains heavily mined. This situation has forced ship operators to navigate a precarious balance between risk and reward, with some opting for the more dangerous path to avoid delays.

With oil prices stabilizing and the ceasefire serving as a temporary truce, the focus now turns to the long-term governance of the strait. Oman’s proposed model offers a potential solution, but its acceptance will depend on international consensus. Meanwhile, the US’s continued military buildup in Jordan and its commitment to the memorandum suggest a dual strategy: diplomacy and deterrence. As the clock ticks toward the 60-day deadline, the world awaits a resolution that could determine the future of energy trade and regional stability.

“We have repeatedly announced that we are using the ceasefire opportunity to enhance our combat capabilities and have not wasted a single moment nor been negligent.”

The legacy of Ali Khamenei, both as a spiritual leader and a geopolitical strategist, is now being measured against Iran’s ability to sustain control over the strait. Whether this control will be seen as a triumph or a test of endurance remains to be seen, but the interplay of mourning, military maneuvering, and economic stakes has already shaped the narrative in profound ways.