‘This changes everything’: how Brexit altered Scotland’s political landscape
‘This changes everything’: how Brexit altered Scotland’s political landscape
This changes everything - Following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, support for Scottish independence surged, prompting renewed debates about the nation’s future. A decade after the 2016 Brexit referendum, which saw a stark divide between English and Scottish voters, the independence movement has reached near-record levels, according to former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale. Dugdale, reflecting on the pivotal moment, noted how the Brexit vote created a new context for discussions around fairness and sovereignty. Scottish voters overwhelmingly supported remaining in the EU, with 62% casting their ballots for ‘Remain’ compared to 38% for ‘Leave.’ Yet, despite this clear mandate, Scotland was dragged out of Europe, fueling a sense of disenfranchisement among many citizens.
A Shift in Political Priorities
The fallout from Brexit reshaped Scotland’s political dynamics, particularly for those who had previously been undecided on independence. Dugdale argued that the UK government’s hardline Brexit approach played a critical role in swaying public opinion. She described the vote as a moment of reckoning, where the stark contrast between Scotland’s pro-EU stance and the UK’s departure from the EU became a rallying point for independence advocates. “This changes everything,” she said in a private conversation with then-first minister Nicola Sturgeon on the morning of 24 June 2016, the day the result was confirmed. The phrase, which resonated deeply with many Scots, encapsulated the frustration over their perceived lack of control in a decision that would impact their economy and future.
“I felt utterly devastated,” Dugdale recalled. “It was as if Scotland had been thrust into a situation it didn’t choose, and the idea of an independent nation within the EU seemed more attainable than ever.”
Sturgeon, who has long championed Scottish self-determination, echoed this sentiment in her memoir *Frankly*. She wrote of her emotional response to the Brexit result, describing it as a “profound sense of betrayal.” The referendum revealed a stark division within the UK, with Scotland’s pro-EU stance clashing against the broader national trend. Sturgeon’s determination to push for a second independence vote was rooted in this moment, as she believed the EU represented a path to stability and prosperity for Scotland.
Political Reckoning in 2017
Despite the initial momentum, the push for a second referendum faced significant challenges. The 2017 general election marked a turning point, with voters punishing the Scottish National Party (SNP) for its relentless focus on independence. Sturgeon’s insistence on holding a second vote to secure Scotland’s exit from the UK drew resistance from the Conservative government, led by Theresa May. As a result, support for independence dipped below 40%, a sharp reversal from the 50% seen in earlier polls. The SNP’s vote share also fell by 13 percentage points, signaling a loss of momentum.
Meanwhile, the pro-UK parties experienced a resurgence. The Conservatives, under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, secured 13 Westminster seats, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats gained seven and four seats respectively. This shift underscored a growing appetite among Scots for stability, with many prioritizing the UK’s economic resilience over the abstract promise of independence. Davidson, who had championed the ‘Remain’ campaign in 2016, expressed concern that the Brexit result might lead to independence becoming the dominant political issue. “I had a strong sense of ‘If not now, when?’” Sturgeon wrote, highlighting the urgency she felt to act.
“I can remember thinking ‘no, no, no’,” Davidson admitted in an interview. “The remain vote shouldn’t be co-opted for something it wasn’t for.”
However, the anticipated surge in independence support did not materialize as expected. While some speculated that Brexit could push support past 60%, the momentum remained uneven. The initial shock of the referendum faded as other political and economic crises took center stage. Boris Johnson’s hard Brexit policies, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the chaos of Donald Trump’s presidency created a climate of uncertainty. These factors overshadowed the EU issue, leading to a decline in its salience for many voters.
Reawakening of the Independence Movement
By 2019, the tide began to turn again. With Johnson’s leadership and his aggressive push for Brexit, the narrative around Scotland’s future shifted once more. Sturgeon’s position as a unifying figure contrasted sharply with Johnson’s perceived unpredictability, reigniting interest in independence. The 2019 and 2020 elections saw a dramatic increase in support for leaving the UK, peaking at 59% in October 2020. This resurgence was fueled by growing concerns over economic decline and the strain on public services, particularly the NHS.
Dugdale attributed these challenges to Brexit’s broader impact on the UK’s economy. In a speech to the Scottish Parliament on 18 June 2026, she cited estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which highlighted £3.3bn in lost revenue for Scotland in the previous year. This figure, she argued, reflected the tangible consequences of Brexit, including higher food bills that added £250 to the average household’s expenses. These economic repercussions, combined with the UK government’s perceived inability to manage post-Brexit challenges, deepened the divide between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
“Brexit has made it clear that Scotland is not just a region of the UK but a distinct entity with its own interests,” said Stephen Gethins, the Scottish government’s Europe minister. “The financial and social costs of leaving the EU are now evident, and that has changed the political landscape for the better.”
The Evolving Debate
Despite the rise in independence sentiment, the movement remains divided. Dugdale noted that while Brexit played a role in the shift, the focus on economic issues has weakened the SNP’s claims to a clear mandate for a second referendum. In recent years, the SNP has failed to secure more than 50% of the vote in five consecutive elections, a trend that reflects the complexity of the political landscape. The debate now centers on whether the UK’s economic performance under Brexit will justify continued union or if the cost of remaining in the UK will outweigh the benefits.
Ruth Davidson, who had previously opposed independence, remains a vocal critic of Johnson’s leadership. She described her frustration with the prime minister’s lack of vision, stating that his chaotic approach to Brexit and the pandemic left many Scots questioning the UK’s ability to govern effectively. “There was a hierarchy of concern,” Davidson explained. “Whether we were for independence or staying in the UK was a more material issue than the UK’s relationship with the EU.” This perspective highlights the evolving priorities of Scottish voters, who now weigh the immediate economic impact of Brexit against the long-term benefits of independence.
As the political landscape continues to shift, the legacy of Brexit in Scotland remains a defining factor. While the initial referendum created a sense of urgency, the subsequent years have shown that the independence movement is both resilient and adaptable. The challenge for leaders like Sturgeon and Dugdale lies in translating this growing support into concrete political gains, while navigating the complexities of a divided UK. The question of whether Scotland will ultimately leave the UK or remain united hinges on the balance between national identity and economic pragmatism—a debate that has been irrevocably altered by the Brexit decision.