Ten years on, has the Brexit vote helped or hindered the EU?

Ten Years On, Has the Brexit Vote Helped or Hindered the EU?

Ten years on has the Brexit - On 23 June 2016, the European Union faced a pivotal moment. Rain lashed Brussels as the news of the UK’s decision to leave the bloc spread, igniting a storm of uncertainty across Europe. Leaders like Nigel Farage, then head of UKIP, hailed the referendum as a catalyst for change, declaring the EU’s future “finished” and “dead.” Meanwhile, far-right figures from France, the Netherlands, and Italy saw Brexit as a sign that their nations might soon follow. Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Boyko Borissov even suggested that only three countries—Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece—would remain in the EU if the “domino effect” took hold. Yet, despite the fervor, no other nation voted to exit, and the EU continued to expand its influence in the years that followed.

The EU’s Shifting Priorities

Michael Roth, a former German Europe minister, argued that Brexit fundamentally altered the EU’s mindset. “Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution,” he said. “It’s seen as a warning.” The UK’s departure proved costly, complex, and politically disruptive, leaving many European leaders wary of similar moves. Instead of fearing exit, countries began prioritizing accession, driven by global challenges. The war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, and Donald Trump’s rhetoric about Greenland sparked renewed interest in EU unity. As a result, the bloc launched detailed membership talks with Moldova and Ukraine this month, while the western Balkans now have clearer prospects for joining. Iceland, too, is preparing to hold a referendum on resuming EU negotiations, with growing support in Norway, though it remains a minority view.

Heather Grabbe, a former European Commission adviser, noted that the UK has moved down the list of priorities for the EU. “The UK has slid down the list of priorities,” she said, as the bloc focuses on Russia’s war, Chinese economic competition, and Trump’s unpredictable actions. This shift has allowed the EU to strengthen its focus on collective defense, a lesson highlighted by Charles Michel, the former Belgian prime minister and European Council president. He acknowledged Brexit’s emotional weight but credited it with simplifying decision-making. “Brexit made decisions easier… no doubt,” he stated. The UK’s exit, he added, helped the EU “be more engaged” in security matters, providing useful preparation for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. For example, the European Peace Facility, initially budgeted at €5bn, expanded to €17bn (£15bn) by 2024, bolstered by additional funding to reinforce European military capabilities.

Eurosceptic Reflections

Despite the EU’s forward momentum, some Eurosceptics still express regret. Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists in the European Parliament, admitted, “We miss them, but at the same time we respect the decision of the British people.” Procaccini, a member of Italy’s nationalist Brothers of Italy party, emphasized that his country, a founding member of the EU, could not imagine leaving Europe. He dismissed Brexit as a source of lessons, noting that Italy’s own aspirations to exit the euro were labeled “fake news” by his party’s leader, Giorgia Meloni. Now, as Italy’s prime minister, Meloni has shifted course, collaborating with EU center-right leaders like Ursula von der Leyen on issues such as Ukraine support, migration control, and regulatory reforms.

Procaccini also pointed to the EU’s recent toughened deportation laws, which he attributes to the “Giorgia majority”—a broad coalition of liberals, traditional conservatives, and far-right factions. However, he acknowledged that ideological shifts within the EU remain inconsistent. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, for instance, has seen his approval ratings plummet since taking office, while French President Emmanuel Macron struggles with political stagnation after a 2024 snap election left his parliament without a clear majority. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, though praised for his diplomatic approach, faces challenges in balancing domestic and international priorities.

A New European Identity?

While Brexit initially raised fears of fragmentation, it also spurred a re-evaluation of the EU’s role. The event underscored the importance of unity in the face of external threats, reinforcing the bloc’s resolve to act collectively. Yet, the UK’s departure has also revealed the EU’s adaptability. Countries that once debated leaving the union now see it as a model for integration, with the EU embracing new members to counter global challenges. This dynamic has created a paradox: Brexit, once a symbol of European division, has become a catalyst for cohesion.

Charles Michel’s perspective highlights this duality. While he praised Brexit for streamlining EU defense strategies, he lamented the loss of British influence in economic regulation and technology governance, such as artificial intelligence. The UK’s exit has forced the EU to redefine its priorities, emphasizing security and crisis response over economic flexibility. This has led to a more centralized approach to policy-making, as seen in the creation of the European Peace Facility and the acceleration of EU enlargement talks. However, the absence of the UK has also left a void in areas like financial regulation, where the UK previously played a key role in shaping standards.

As the decade unfolds, the EU’s evolution is marked by both challenges and opportunities. Brexit’s legacy is evident in the bloc’s heightened focus on solidarity and resilience. The UK, meanwhile, has become a strategic partner in areas like trade and diplomacy, despite its departure. This complex relationship has reshaped European politics, with nations recalibrating their positions in response to global uncertainties. Whether Brexit has ultimately benefited Europe or the UK remains a subject of debate, but its impact on the EU’s trajectory is undeniable.

The UK’s exit has also influenced the broader European discourse on sovereignty and integration. Far-right leaders, once inspired by Brexit, now see it as a cautionary tale rather than a blueprint. The EU, in turn, has adapted to maintain its influence, embracing expansion as a means of strengthening its collective power. This evolution suggests that while Brexit initially sparked divisions, it has also catalyzed a more unified and proactive European Union, ready to face the challenges of the 21st century.

Looking ahead, the EU’s ability to balance internal and external priorities will determine the long-term effects of Brexit. The UK’s decision to leave has not only reshaped the political landscape but also forced Europe to rethink its approach to governance and global leadership. As the bloc continues to grow and adapt, the question remains: did Brexit serve as a warning, or was it the beginning of a new era of European cooperation and strength?