‘Canaries in the coalmine of populism’: an oral history of the Brexit campaign, told by those with a front row seat

‘Canaries in the coalmine of populism’: an oral history of the Brexit campaign, told by those with a front row seat

Canaries in the coalmine of populism - On June 23, 2016, a historic vote reshaped the political landscape of the United Kingdom. The decision to hold a referendum on EU membership, first announced by then-Prime Minister David Cameron in 2013, set the stage for a divisive campaign. The event was not merely a policy debate but a seismic shift in the trajectory of the Conservative Party and the broader nation. Those who played pivotal roles in the campaign—both in and out of the spotlight—recalled the events that led to the momentous outcome in their own words.

The Prime Minister’s Bold Gamble

Cameron’s 2013 promise to deliver a referendum on Britain’s European Union membership was a calculated move to address growing Euroscepticism within his party. The idea, however, was met with mixed reactions. Senior Conservative figures were divided, with some fearing the potential fallout. Bernard Jenkin, a backbencher and vocal supporter of the EU, argued that the referendum could fracture the party. “The campaign’s momentum truly began with Cameron’s 2013 speech,” Jenkin recalled. “I went to see him after that and pleaded with him not to proceed, knowing it would split the Conservative Party. He dismissed my concerns, saying, ‘I know 50 Conservative MPs may vote leave, but we can live with that.’ At that point, I realized he didn’t grasp the depth of the internal conflict.”

"I know 50 Conservative MPs may vote leave, but we can live with that."

Cameron’s rationale was to harness the referendum as a tool to address dissatisfaction over Europe. David Lidington, a trusted ally and minister for Europe from 2010 to 2016, described the decision as “a prime ministerial gamble.” He supported the remain campaign, though he acknowledged the strategic reasoning behind it. “The referendum was meant to lance the boil of discontent within the party,” Lidington explained. “But I felt it was like throwing lumps of red meat to wolves—once they tasted it, they’d come back for more.”

"It was like chucking lumps of red meat to pursuing wolves from the sled."

From Uncertainty to a Defining Moment

The campaign’s early days were marked by confusion and uncertainty. Craig Oliver, who managed communications for No 10 and the official remain campaign, noted the tension within the Conservative Party. “At the start, we were in real trouble,” Oliver said. “Not because we feared losing the vote, but because the party’s heart was clearly beating for Brexit. Anyone who supported remain was seen as a threat to Cameron’s leadership.”

Boris Johnson, then London’s mayor, emerged as a key figure in the leave movement. His decision to back Brexit was a turning point. Will Walden, who worked as Johnson’s communications director, described the weekend of the announcement as “a rollercoaster of doubt.” “Most people in the country were still unsure where they stood,” Walden recalled. “Boris himself was divided. He was pro-European but had frustrations with the EU’s bureaucracy. That weekend, he was pulled in all directions—by Cameron, by Osborne, even by family. When he finally made his decision, he looked to me and asked, ‘What should I do?’ I told him, ‘You’re not making the most consequential decision of your career. You need to choose.’ He agreed, and that moment defined the campaign’s direction.”

"What should I do?" ... "You need to make that decision."

The Fallout and the Fight for Survival

The announcement of Johnson’s leave stance sent shockwaves through Cameron’s inner circle. David Lidington admitted the team was “shocked and frustrated,” though he pointed to Michael Gove, the justice secretary and Cameron’s close friend, as the bigger threat. “Boris’s decision was a political move, but it wasn’t the one that hurt us most,” Lidington said. “Michael Gove’s backing for Brexit represented a personal betrayal. We had always believed Boris was a wildcard, but Gove’s alignment with the hard right was a clear signal of the party’s split.”

Jess Phillips, a Labour MP who joined the remain campaign, highlighted the chaos that followed. “I didn’t think Boris was a major danger at first,” she said. “To me, he was just a man who told lies for attention. It didn’t matter which side he backed—his actions would always be seen as self-serving.” Despite her skepticism, Phillips noted the campaign’s disorganization. “It was unlike anything I’d experienced before. We were trying to counter a movement that had already taken root in the public’s mind, while the Conservative Party’s leadership was still figuring out its own position.”

"I genuinely couldn’t believe why anybody would think that anything he said was anything other than a lie."

Reactions and Reflections

As the campaign gained momentum, the Conservative Party’s unity began to unravel. The distribution of government leaflets about Brexit’s risks was a crucial early step, but leave supporters called it “project fear”—a strategy to overstate the dangers of staying in the EU. “We were fighting against a narrative that had already captured the imagination of many,” Oliver said. “The challenge wasn’t just convincing people to stay, but to prevent the party from losing its identity.”

Johnson’s announcement, delivered from his Oxfordshire farmhouse, became a catalyst. The Leave campaign quickly mobilized, leveraging his charisma and reputation as a reformer. Meanwhile, Cameron’s team scrambled to adapt. “That weekend, we realized the battle wasn’t just about policy—it was about leadership,” Walden reflected. “Boris’s decision forced us to confront the reality that the party had already chosen its side, and Cameron was the one standing in the way.”

Looking back, the campaign was a microcosm of the broader political upheaval. The referendum’s outcome was not just a vote on Europe but a referendum on the Conservative Party’s future. As the dust settled, the question remained: what did the decision mean for the nation’s path forward? For those who watched from the front row, the events of June 23, 2016, were a defining chapter in the story of populism and political transformation.

The Aftermath

The vote’s result—Brexit victory for the Leave campaign—marked the end of Cameron’s tenure. His decision to hold the referendum, once seen as a way to unite the party, instead exposed its divisions. “The referendum was a starting gun, but it also became a reckoning,” Jenkin observed. “The Conservative Party had to confront the reality that its future would be shaped by the very people it had once considered allies.”

Lidington’s reflection on the decision underscores its complexity. “It was a gamble that paid off in terms of public sentiment, but it fractured the party’s internal cohesion. The EU referendum was a moment of truth, and it revealed the extent to which Europe had become a fault line in British politics.”

As the campaign moved into its final stretch, the stakes were clear. The choice on June 23, 2016, would not only determine the UK’s relationship with the EU but also redefine the political landscape for years to come. The oral histories of those who shaped the campaign offer a glimpse into the turmoil, ambition, and uncertainty that defined this pivotal moment in modern British history.