Swinney says Scottish independence referendum could be held in 2028

Scottish Independence Referendum Could Be Held by 2028, Says Swinney

John Swinney, Scotland’s First Minister, has indicated that a second independence referendum may take place by 2028. During a BBC Scotland Debate Night event in Paisley Town Hall, the SNP leader emphasized that a constitutional vote could occur within two years. Other party leaders also participated in the discussion, offering contrasting views on the issue.

Party Leaders Clash Over Independence and Priorities

Ross Greer, co-leader of the Greens, argued that Scotland’s destiny should be determined by its own people, calling for a referendum to address ongoing challenges in the NHS and economy. Meanwhile, Labour’s Anas Sarwar stressed that the upcoming election is focused on governance, not independence, urging voters to prioritize a functioning government. Russell Findlay of the Conservatives warned that a break-up of the UK would lead to significant problems, while Reform UK’s Malcolm Offord described another referendum as divisive but acknowledged it could happen if independence support reaches 60%.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, stated he had not considered a second referendum as a priority, citing his focus on other pressing issues. The debate, moderated by a live studio audience, also featured heated discussions on immigration, healthcare, and energy policy.

Referendum Requirements and Political Stance

For a second independence vote to proceed, approval from the UK government is necessary. However, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has expressed doubt about holding such a referendum during his tenure. Earlier, Health Secretary Wes Streeting reiterated the stance, saying,

“We’re not having one” and adding that “this country has had enough of chaos.”

Swinney framed the need for a referendum as a way to resolve Scotland’s “constitutional stalemate,” suggesting an SNP majority would be key to unlocking the process. He urged voters to support his party to secure control over Scotland’s future. Greer, meanwhile, contended that a majority of pro-independence MSPs in the next parliament would signal a mandate for independence, criticizing Westminster’s refusal to grant Scotland a second say.

Immigration and Regional Concerns

Immigration has emerged as a central debate topic, with Reform UK’s Offord advocating for “cohesion” in Scottish communities and claiming some migrants are “jumping the queue” at the expense of locals. Glasgow, which hosts more asylum seekers—around 3,800—than any city outside London, has seen strain on local services, according to Findlay. Susan Aitken, Glasgow City Council leader, noted last year that the city had “run out of temporary accommodation.”

Greer defended higher immigration levels, highlighting its importance for the NHS and rural areas. Cole-Hamilton, however, accused Offord of using the issue to “divide the people of Scotland,” noting that while small boat crossings are a concern, immigration is vital for addressing a “skills crisis.” Sarwar further criticized Offord for questioning his loyalty to Scotland and targeting migrant communities.

Political Dynamics and Future Outlook

Findlay accused Swinney of being “distracted” and blamed the SNP for worsening Scotland’s situation. Offord, though, hinted that a surge in independence support might force the UK to reconsider. As the Holyrood election approaches, the debate over Scotland’s constitutional future remains a key battleground for party leaders and voters alike.