One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

One Nation's Surge Challenges Election Predictions

One Nation s rise puts the next - Australia's political landscape is shifting dramatically as One Nation's rise puts the upcoming federal election into uncharted territory. The party has transformed from a distant sixth-place finisher to a genuine contender for power, fundamentally altering how experts forecast voter behavior and seat outcomes. This surge has sparked intense debate about whether Pauline Hanson can realistically pursue the prime ministership in the next election cycle.

Uncharted Electoral Territory

George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAu, describes the current situation as "unknown territory" for political analysts. The party's trajectory has been remarkable, climbing from just six percent of the vote in the previous election to consistently ranking first or second in recent polling surveys. This dramatic improvement has forced a complete reassessment of traditional electoral forecasting models.

Historical data reveals the scale of this transformation. During last year's federal election, One Nation finished in the final two positions in only two seats and the final three in just 26 constituencies. However, DemosAu's March multivariate regression poll suggests a vastly different picture emerging, with the party projected to finish in the final three across more than 100 seats nationwide.

Hanson's Ambitions Meet Geographic Reality

Pauline Hanson has publicly expressed her intention to contest a House of Representatives seat in 2028, confidently asserting her capability to serve as prime minister. Yet significant geographic challenges remain for her ambitions. One Nation performs notably poorly in inner metropolitan electorates, creating a substantial hurdle for any path to government.

To achieve a majority, the party would need to secure approximately three-quarters of the 107 outer metropolitan, rural, and regional seats. This requirement highlights the concentration of One Nation's support in non-urban areas and the difficulty of expanding into densely populated city centers where traditional parties maintain stronger footholds.

Shifting Preference Dynamics

The preferential voting system adds complexity to the current political environment. During the 2025 election, very few seats were decided on first preferences alone, with most requiring second or third preference transfers. One Nation's growing strength means that preference flows are becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially decisive in determining outcomes.

Hasanakos notes that One Nation has emerged as the lead conservative party, capturing roughly half of conservative voters and fundamentally altering traditional preference patterns across the political spectrum.

This shift has important implications for both major parties. The Coalition and Labor must now account for One Nation's ability to draw support from their traditional bases, potentially creating scenarios where neither major party secures first-preference victories in key marginal seats.

Polling Nuances and Voter Behavior

Recent polling data shows One Nation maintaining strong primary vote support in the high twenties to low thirties during May and June. However, some surveys, including Redbridge and Newspoll, indicate a slight decline behind Labor in certain metrics. These variations highlight the importance of understanding polling methodology and timing.

Murray Goot from Macquarie University emphasizes that how-to-vote cards continue to influence a significant number of voters, potentially making some polls misleading. Victorian and South Australian data suggests approximately forty percent of major party voters follow these cards, which could substantially impact final election results when preferences are distributed.

The question remains whether the Coalition can maintain its status as a major party given declining support among homeowners and Generation X voters. With housing affordability and immigration emerging as critical issues according to Accent Research and Redbridge polling, One Nation's positioning on these topics continues to resonate with voters seeking alternatives to established political options.