Beijing promised to ‘fight back’ over Taiwan leader’s US visit. But this time it has more to lose

Beijing warned of a strong response to President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the U.S., but the stakes are higher than ever this time

The upcoming meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of China’s previous aggressive tactics. Last year, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, Beijing responded with a wave of military drills, including missile launches near the island and warplanes crossing the critical median line of the Taiwan Strait. This time, the tension is amplified by the fact that Tsai’s trip includes a stopover in the U.S., which Beijing has already vowed to counter with a “resolute fight back” if the meeting proceeds.

Analysts suggest the meeting’s location and timing could influence Beijing’s approach. Taking place in California rather than Taiwan, and occurring as China navigates complex foreign relations ahead of its presidential election, the event might encourage more measured reactions. “China now faces pressure to avoid overreaching, as any strong response could alienate global allies,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. However, Beijing remains vigilant, assessing how to balance its assertive stance with strategic considerations.

“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” Sun added.

Tsai, embarking on a 10-day tour, has reiterated her commitment to strengthening ties with democracies worldwide. “External pressure will not deter Taiwan from engaging with the global community,” she declared during her departure. The symbolic importance of the meeting with McCarthy, the leader of the U.S. House majority, is heightened by the fact that Washington and Taipei maintain only unofficial relations.

China’s military buildup under President Xi Jinping has intensified over the past decade, yet the current situation may require Beijing to temper its actions. “Every time Taiwan does something China dislikes, the response is typically military coercion,” Sun noted. However, the potential fallout from a harsh reaction now includes risks to broader U.S.-China stability, especially with tensions over issues like the downed surveillance balloon and semiconductor supply chains.

Taiwan’s Central News Agency confirmed the meeting, citing Tsai’s presidential office. The island continues to face the aftermath of last year’s military incursions, which eroded the previously respected de facto border in the Strait. For Tsai, nearing the end of her second term, the encounter with McCarthy represents a pivotal moment in consolidating her legacy of advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation.