England’s big chances and France’s shots: how World Cup quarter-finalists’ stats line up
Quarter-Final Contenders: Statistical Breakdown of England, France, and Other Top Teams
England s big chances and France - The World Cup has now progressed to the quarter-final phase, with several nations positioned as strong candidates to advance further. According to Opta's probability rankings, France leads as the most likely team to reach the semi-finals, followed by Spain, Argentina, and England in descending order. However, all eight remaining squads possess favorable statistical indicators from their tournament performances so far.
France's Carrying Power and Chance Creation
One of France's most remarkable attributes is their ability to move past opposing players with ease. The French squad demonstrates exceptional ball-carrying capability, with Opta tracking carries of five meters or more and noting whether each run concludes with a shot or a created opportunity. Nine French players have achieved at least four productive carries of both types. Among them are Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Kylian Mbappé, and Michael Olise. Bradley Barcola sits just one carry away from matching this achievement.
France's sprinting intensity also merits attention, with a rate of 0.75 sprints per kilometer covered. While Morocco recorded the highest total sprint count among the eight remaining teams, they have also played an additional half-hour of football compared to some competitors. When calculating sprint frequency relative to distance covered, Morocco maintains the highest average, indicating intense running patterns. Playing two fixtures in climate-controlled venues likely contributed to their physical conditioning, positioning them well to face France's demanding style.
Spain's Defensive Solidity and Ball Retention
Spain's possession statistics reveal remarkable consistency, with their average ball control hovering within a fraction of what they achieved during Euro 2012. Though this current generation displays more attacking flair than their predecessors from fourteen years prior, their dominance of the ball has produced an equally formidable defensive record. The expected goals conceded figure of 1.49 provides useful context—Norway has allowed at least this amount in four of their five tournament matches.
Spain also excels in high turnovers that lead to scoring opportunities, recording 50 instances compared to Belgium's 41. Belgium holds a particular advantage in high turnovers resulting directly in shots, totaling 15, with four goals stemming from these situations. This metric suggests Spain's defensive line may face pressure that could generate uncharacteristic errors.
Norway's Clinical Efficiency
Norway has embraced a philosophy centered on quality over quantity. Despite playing one additional match compared to some opponents, they have registered only four more shots than Cape Verde. Their expected goals average per shot stands at 0.17, the highest among all participating nations. Even accounting for the limited sample size of five games, Norway's non-penalty xG per shot exceeds the seasonal averages recorded across Europe's five premier leagues.
England's Golden Opportunities
England delivered a devastating offensive display against Mexico, generating six shots with five finding the target and three goals scored. Two tap-ins and one penalty conversion earned Opta's classification as big chances—situations where a player "should reasonably be expected to score." Although England showed less efficiency in converting these opportunities during earlier rounds, they have accumulated more of these premium chances than any other team in the tournament.
Argentina's Versatile Attack
Argentina shares the top scoring position with fourteen goals, but their offensive diversity distinguishes them from other contenders. No other team has scored as frequently outside what Opta categorizes as regular play. The defending champions have demonstrated multiple pathways to goal: two counterattacking strikes against Austria, two free-kick conversions versus Jordan, and two corner-derived goals in their victory over Cape Verde. Their depth allows even Lionel Messi to miss penalties without significant impact.
Switzerland's Direct Speed
Switzerland may not appear particularly rapid to casual observers, and by global standards of the forty-eight competing nations, they are not. Nevertheless, Opta's direct-speed measurement—which tracks the average velocity of ball movement toward the opponent's goal line during attacking sequences—places them as the fastest quarter-finalist at 1.77 meters per second. With Argentina expected to control possession, Switzerland must capitalize on transitional moments with precision and pace.