Colombia on the brink: ELN guerrilla group prepares for return to war

Colombia Faces New Military Chapter as ELN Readies for Conflict

Wanderstayfinder.com – Colombia stands at a critical juncture in its decades-long internal struggle. As Abelardo de la Espriella assumes the presidency this Friday, the nation’s final leftwing guerrilla movement is positioning itself for renewed hostilities. The incoming administration has signaled its intention to terminate ongoing peace negotiations while simultaneously launching a comprehensive military campaign against remaining rebel forces.

Deep in the Jungle, a Commander Prepares

Near the banks of the San Juan River in Chocó department, ELN forces maintain their presence in one of the country’s most remote strongholds. Camouflaged fighters observe from the tree line as their commander sits with rifle across his lap, surrounded by the sounds of insects and the rhythmic striking of machetes against bamboo. Troops establish their camp beneath the dense canopy, deliberately concealing themselves from aerial surveillance.

The region represents a vital corridor for both commerce and conflict. Giant mining barges anchor along the waterway while excavators pull gold particles from the riverbed. Armed factions from multiple organizations vie for dominance over this resource-rich territory and its inhabitants.

“Where we can go on the offensive, we will,” said Yerson, commander of the ELN’s Western War Front. “And if the ELN leadership says we have to carry out a military offensive at the national level, we will. Attacks in cities, in the countryside, wherever.”

A Conflict Rooted in Inequality

Colombia’s armed struggle traces its origins to the 1960s, emerging from profound disparities in land distribution and political exclusion. The ELN, established in 1964, merged Marxist-Leninist ideology with Che Guevara’s concept of the foco—wherein a compact armed unit operating in isolated rural zones could ultimately overthrow governmental authority. Liberation theology further shaped their mission, interpreting the fight against poverty and oppression as a manifestation of Christian conviction.

Alongside the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the ELN emerged as the movement’s principal guerrilla organization. Both groups engaged in kidnappings, executions, and the forced relocation of civilian communities throughout their revolutionary campaign. While the Farc concluded its armed struggle in 2016 following a peace agreement with the state, the ELN maintains that its fighters will only surrender weapons after achieving comprehensive political and economic transformation.

“The Farc surrendered in exchange for nothing,” said Yerson, noting that subsequent administrations failed to fully execute the peace agreement while former combatants continued to face violence.

Petro’s Peace Promise Stalls

Gustavo Petro, elected president in 2022 after serving as a guerrilla fighter with the M-19 movement during the 1980s, campaigned on a platform of comprehensive peace. His administration pledged to honor commitments made to the Farc while initiating negotiations with all remaining armed organizations across the political spectrum. However, nearly all dialogue—including discussions with the ELN, the Gulf Clan paramilitary group, and Farc dissidents who declined demobilization—either deteriorated or collapsed entirely.

Yerson dismissed the notion that Petro’s election represented genuine progress toward ELN objectives through existing political channels. He characterized the administration’s achievements as incremental measures rather than structural change.

“They handed out lands [to the poor]. They did a kind of pension reform. They were looking for ways to improve healthcare,” he explained. “But in the end these are small things. They don’t help with the popular awakening.”

Merchants of Violence and Political Control

The ELN commander described a landscape increasingly dominated by mercenary forces operating throughout rebel territories. These groups, he noted, bring considerable violence but lack the political ambitions that define the guerrilla movement.

“All of the ELN territories are being invaded by bands of mercenaries,” he said. “They are very violent, but they are not disputing political power.”

According to Yerson, Petro’s ascent to power resulted from concessions made by Colombia’s traditional elite, who sought to calm widespread protests against inequality that erupted in 2019 and 2021. The oligarchy, he argued, understood that Petro would not pursue transformative reforms and could therefore be managed within the existing framework.

“Colombia’s political system ‘is not the democracy it claims to be’,” he asserted.

Implications for Colombia’s Future

The potential resumption of full-scale conflict carries significant consequences for the nation. With the ELN preparing for renewed military operations and the new president committed to a harder line, Colombia risks undoing years of diplomatic progress. The conflict, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions of citizens, may enter another turbulent chapter as both sides prepare for confrontation rather than cooperation.

The outcome will depend not only on military capabilities but on whether the government can address the fundamental grievances that continue to fuel the rebellion. Without meaningful structural reform, the cycle of violence may persist long after the current political transition concludes.