Iran Strait of Hormuz warning adds to shipping uncertainty
Iran Strait of Hormuz warning adds to shipping uncertainty
Iran’s navy has issued a warning to vessels in the Gulf, stating that any ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without approval will be “targeted and destroyed,” according to SSY, a shipping brokerage firm. This alert follows a two-week ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday, which required “safe passage” through the strategic waterway as a condition. However, the number of ships crossing remains low, with only a handful observed so far.
Strategic waterway under threat
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 33km (21 miles) passage, has become a critical battleground in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. It serves as a vital route for global oil and liquefied natural gas, accounting for roughly one-fifth of worldwide energy exports. Over the past five weeks, disruptions in this chokepoint have caused ripple effects across global markets, inflating energy prices and highlighting the fragility of international trade networks.
Analyst perspectives on cautious movement
Despite the ceasefire, shipping experts remain skeptical about a swift return to normalcy. “Most shipping lines are still waiting for clear instructions on how to transit safely,” said Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime. He noted that details about the process are unclear, leaving operators hesitant. Similarly, Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List described the period as “very dangerous,” emphasizing that uncertainty about Iran’s control and permission protocols persists.
“Nothing has really changed yet,” Jensen added, suggesting it will take time for crews to feel secure enough to navigate the strait.
BBC Verify’s analysis of MarineTraffic data reveals that the three ships that crossed the strait on Wednesday took a northern route near Iran’s coast, entering its territorial waters. Previously, vessels typically used a more central path. Analysts like Ana Subasic from Kpler caution that it’s unclear whether the recent crossings were due to the ceasefire or prearranged exceptions.
With nearly 800 ships reportedly stranded in the region for weeks, some expect prioritization of fully loaded tankers once passage resumes. “The focus will likely be on getting these vessels out first,” Meade observed. Yet, the two-week duration of the ceasefire raises concerns about the long-term viability of crossings, with Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO suggesting limited traffic may return due to fears of being trapped after the period ends.
Uncertainties persist
Additional risks include the potential presence of sea mines, as highlighted by Thomas Kazakos of the International Chamber of Shipping. “We need confirmation that navigation safety is assured,” he stated. Another unresolved issue is the possibility of tolls for safe passage, with reports indicating such fees may be part of the ceasefire arrangement. This could complicate operations for countries and companies not yet negotiating with Iran.
“The Iranian stance suggests toll payments might be necessary, and shipping lines will be cautious about committing to that,” Jensen explained.
